One smartphone - for two years

Analyst Ben Evans from Enders Analysis in his personal blog provided interesting data regarding the replacement of users of their mobile phones. According to his calculations, the average “lifetime” of one device for a user is 24 months, that is, two years. 

Therefore, as he believes, it is of interest to track two-year sales cycles of mobile devices. For example, at the end of 2012, the install base of Android devices was at the level of 675 million, and iOS phones – 230 million. Two years before that (at the end of 2010), 55-60 million “androidphones” were sold (since the start of their sales a year earlier), and the number of iPhones sold was estimated at 72.7 million. 

Simple calculations show that a little more than 90% of all current owners of Android phones have purchased their first device in the last two years. For the iPhone, this figure is 68%. 

Of course, transitions from one platform to another are not taken into account here, as well as people who purchase a new smartphone every year. There are, of course, such users who have been using one device for 3-4 years, but according to Evans, their number is not so significant for the average indicator. 

Another important variable that is also not taken into account here is the number of people selling their iPhone every year to buy a new one.

Anyway, the most interesting thing is something else. If we assume that these calculations are correct, then we can draw the following conclusion: for 90% of current owners of Android smartphones, this is their first device on this axis. But there are much fewer newcomers among the “apple growers” – no more than 68%. 

Based on these data, one more conclusion can be drawn: there are significantly more people who are committed to the brand among iOS users than those who use Android smartphones (here, however, it is unlikely to take into account the commitment to a particular brand of phone).