EA shared the initial results of Real Racing 3
The number of downloads for the new game IronMonkeys in its first week exceeded the total downloads for Real Racing and Real Racing 2 over their entire existence in the market. Is this a success?
Nick Earl, vice president of EA's mobile and social divisions, stated in an interview with CNET that the freemium model was undoubtedly the right choice for the company, including from a financial perspective.
“A vocal minority met freemium with hostility,” noted Earl. “We respect and understand them, but the market has already spoken.”
The question now is whether Real Racing 3 is truly doing well. The game ranked first in the free app charts in 90 countries. Currently, it's at the top in only two countries. For instance, it's at 17th place in the U.S. But as is well known, free charts are far from being a definitive measure of an app's success.
In the U.S. App Store for iPhone, Real Racing 3 peaked at 8th position and is now only at 23rd. Of course, that's a decent position, but didn't EA expect more?
The first 20 days of Real Racing 3 in the U.S. market (iPhone App Store)
If, for example, we compare the financial results of Real Racing 3 with Need for Speed Most Wanted over a similar period (the first 20 days from release), they are not much different. Moreover, by the highest financial position, Most Wanted surpasses Real Racing 3 in the U.S. store.
The first 20 days of Need for Speed Most Wanted in the U.S. market (iPhone App Store)
But there's one aspect to consider: after the first few weeks, Need for Speed began the usual decline typical of any standalone project. This hasn't been observed with the third part of Real Racing yet. This is despite having the same mechanics, engine, and development team (both projects were created by IronMonkey Studios).
John Jordan from PocketGamer believes that racing games will never be able to outperform projects like Clash of Clans and Rage of Bahamut in terms of earnings. In his opinion, it's because such games lack more definitive PvP. Finishing second on the track isn't a strong motivator for rivalry, while a looted base is a different matter altogether.
As an additional argument, he points to the declining interest in another, loosely defined, racing game—CSR Racing, which has noticeably lost revenue over the last three months. Last December, it was in the top ten, but now it's nestled in the top 30.
The last three months of CSR Racing in the U.S. top (iPhone App Store)
However, Jordan overlooks two important aspects. First, the NaturalMotion game was released back in May 2012 and until February 2013 never dropped below the 20th position in the revenue charts (during the summer, the game earned $12 million a month). It usually stayed much higher. Second, the decline in interest was likely caused by a long delay between updates. There was a nearly one-and-a-half-month gap, something that had only occurred once before.
As you can see, racing games can indeed be successful in the market. Moreover, what else can you call games like Temple Run but a race?
But speaking specifically about Real Racing 3, can the game become another revenue hit?
We think not. Real Racing 3 will not overtake its F2P competitors. It's hindered by classic racing gameplay. This game requires players to sit down and focus on the process, which could potentially deter a significant part of the paying audience.
On the other hand, Kabam's example demonstrates that it's unwise to underestimate niche markets. Not many people play hardcore economic sims, but those who do spend a lot. If EA can reach the core audience of car simulation fans with their project, strong revenue will follow swiftly.
