The Sales and Identity Challenge Facing Final Fantasy | Commentary

The report that Square Enix's recent releases, Final Fantasy 16 and Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth, have fallen short of their anticipated sales figures might not shock industry insiders. This expectation had been widely anticipated, leading to many resigned reactions.

Such outcomes aren't new for Square Enix, known for its public disappointment regarding major titles not achieving target sales, as seen with Tomb Raider in the past. This approach has become a staple in their financial communications, raising questions about their sales forecasts being perhaps overly optimistic.

The critique holds some truth; Square Enix often struggles with setting realistic game sales targets and seems to be driven by wishful thinking. The company has historically had difficulty managing development budgets and timelines, potentially inflating anticipated sales to offset high production costs, rather than basing them on sensible market assessments.

While this behavior is rarely overtly highlighted, similar trends are not uncommon across the gaming sector. Large-scale projects tend to become overwhelming, sometimes leading to skewed projections to avoid admitting potentially unviable commercial prospects.

In this instance, however, Square Enix's tendency to overestimate is likely not the culprit. The real issue is that these games have significantly underperformed compared to their predecessors in straightforward terms—all publishers aim for new releases to at least equate, if not exceed, prior successes.

By restricting the addressable market for the games, Square Enix made it almost an inevitability that their sales would disappoint

Specifically, Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth is not surpassing the sales of the earlier Final Fantasy 7 Remake, while Final Fantasy 16 is markedly trailing behind Final Fantasy 15. Despite other possible projections or cost issues, this performance is concerning. Critics argue that the decision to initially release these games exclusively on PS5—with the PC version of 16 arriving considerably later—is a key factor limiting sales.

While Final Fantasy 7 Remake also started as a PlayStation-exclusive, it launched on the PS4 during a time when the console had a much larger user base. Conversely, Final Fantasy 15 was available on both PS4 and Xbox One from the start, with the PC version also arriving later. Thus, it's reasonable to say platform exclusivity might hinder sales potential, especially as current economic conditions make purchasing an entire console for specific games less feasible. However, without clarity on any benefits Square Enix may have negotiated with Sony, it's difficult to definitively claim this approach was strategically flawed.

Square Enix would benefit at least somewhat from speeding up its PC release schedule

For Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth, the limited PS5 user base has been a challenge. The earlier Remake benefited from launching late in the PS4's life cycle, tapping into its extensive install base and later gaining renewed interest with a PS5 release. Comparisons are tough due to these factors, but expanding platform availability may not have dramatically altered outcomes, given Xbox Series consoles lag behind PS5 in sales, and their software engagement appears low, partly due to Game Pass's influence.

The PC market seems more promising, and Square Enix could gain by accelerating its PC release timeline, as the lengthy delay post-launch impacts sales adversely. Yet, it's doubtful this alone would recover millions of sales. With Final Fantasy 16, the situation is distinct, since the PS5's user base at launch was similar to the PS4's during Final Fantasy 15's release. Square Enix likely factored in the Xbox One's lackluster performance for Final Fantasy 15 when accepting an exclusivity deal for 16. There's little evidence suggesting an Xbox Series release for Final Fantasy 16 would have significantly altered its sales trajectory.

Launching simultaneously or earlier on PC might have contributed positively, although to what extent is unclear. Current data doesn't robustly support platform exclusivity as the primary issue. Instead, examining how the brand has been managed over the years offers deeper insight.

Final Fantasy was once the flagship JRPG brand, recognized globally as one of the few known entities within the genre. It had defined story themes, structures, and consistent gameplay concepts, despite embracing reinvention with each new entry.

The available data doesn't provide easy support that platform exclusivity is the villain... For a real understanding you have to look to the management of the Final Fantasy brand overall in recent decades

Nowadays, the brand's identity is uncertain. Long-term players and new consumers alike struggle to understand what Final Fantasy represents. This uncertainty stems from the series’ desire to evolve, occasionally resulting in vastly different gameplay experiences not aligned with fan expectations or the series' legacy.

Mainline entries like Final Fantasy 15 and 16 seem disconnected from the series' roots, primarily retaining superficial attributes like visual and nomenclatural elements. This shift not only makes the brand vulnerable to being judged solely on recent titles but also reflects a shift from the essence of the JRPG genre.

While Final Fantasy 7 Remake leveraged the nostalgic appeal of its original, the continuation in Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth depends on consumer perceptions of the Remake's quality. Given its mixed reception—less universally praised than expected—the sales decline was anticipated, independent of platform choices. Diverse audience reactions, stemming from changes like faster combat and deviations from the original storyline, also played a role.

I certainly don't know what Square Enix thinks the Final Fantasy brand represents to consumers more broadly

As Rebirth experienced division among fans, Square Enix should prepare for diminishing returns with the series' third installment. The mainline Final Fantasy series faces even greater challenges. Despite impressive sales, Final Fantasy 15 is looked back upon poorly, largely due to its fragmented storytelling influenced by its cross-media ambitions.

Final Fantasy 16 needed to reassure die-hard fans it marked a return to form following Final Fantasy 15's awkward reception, while enticing newcomers with a fresh gaming experience. However, it appears neither objective was achieved, with the title failing to satisfy long-time fans who disliked its pure action-game focus. Similarly, outside observers saw the changes as superficial, lacking depth.

The MMORPG Final Fantasy 14 stands out as a recent success story, typically regarded as a superior series entry in years and well-received by the gaming community. Although director Naoki Yoshida's contribution was intended to channel this success into Final Fantasy 16, it fell short, despite the notable influence from MMORPG design expertise.

This redirects attention to the platform release strategy, particularly the delayed PC availability, which hinders reaching dedicated FF14 fans primarily gaming on PCs. This delay, coupled with negative initial feedback, likely dampened the eventual PC release's impact. The issue is more than a simple platform targeting mistake; it reflects a broader challenge in effectively managing the Final Fantasy brand.

Ironically, even as FF seems to struggle with both an identity crisis and a sales slump, JRPGs more generally are actually in pretty good health

Square Enix's assumption that Final Fantasy must appeal to mainstream audiences at levels akin to blockbuster titles like Call of Duty or GTA neglects the historical context of the series. It was always more of a niche, thriving with a loyal audience that fuels ancillary revenue. Pursuing mainstream appeal risks alienating the core fanbase drawn to the genre's unique allure.

Interestingly, while Final Fantasy grapples with identity and sales issues, the JRPG genre thrives. Titles such as Persona and Like A Dragon exemplify success by staying true to genre conventions, maintaining manageable development costs, and enjoying fan appreciation. These games serve as models for Square Enix to consider when deciding how to balance development aspects pertinent to Final Fantasy's audience and market.