What are the potential sales projections for the PS5 Pro?

The $700 price for Sony's PS5 Pro has sparked debate about its viability, yet industry insiders believe price is not the most pressing concern for the console's debut. According to Chris Dring from GamesIndustry.biz, there remains interest in this premium PlayStation product, despite cost worries.

To gauge its outlook, analysts weighed in on projected sales and elements influencing mid-generation console releases.

Piers Harding-Rolls from Ampere Analysis estimated 1.3 million units could be sold by late 2024, trailing the PS4 Pro's 1.7 million. Sam Naji from SJN Insights expects fewer than one million units sold in the first year.

Historically, the PS4 Pro achieved lifetime sales of 14.5 million units; Ampere anticipates the PS5 Pro might reach 13 million by 2029. Harding-Rolls noted that while it might not transform sales for the base PS5, it may encourage greater spending on games and services from dedicated users.

Rhys Elliott of Midia Research mirrors this view, suggesting the PS5 Pro might manage up to 15 million units before the generation ends. Meanwhile, Dr. Serkan Toto from Kantan Games says PS5 Pro may not match the PS4 Pro's fractions but remain in a similar range.

In the US, Circana's Mat Piscatella anticipates the Pro could compose 20% of the PS5 sales in its first months post-launch. Historically, the PS4 Pro held 13% of the U.S. sales, contributing to 15% of its overall revenue.

"PlayStation is akin to Apple, albeit on a smaller scale—it almost feels like a lifestyle brand."

Rhys Elliott, Midia Research

Most analysts concur that the Pro caters mainly to ardent PlayStation fans. "It's comparable to a Mercedes-AMG, a boosted version for top-tier purchasers," Toto remarked.

Elliott compares PlayStation's brand presence to Apple's, albeit on a smaller scale, noting an enduring market readiness to invest in top electronics, citing rising iPhone prices as an example.

Piscatella highlighted previously observed high willingness to pay premiums for PS5 consoles, stating that a considerable portion of PS5 purchasers hail from high-income brackets, suggesting a market for the Pro exists despite its premium price.

Globally, rougher pricing conditions see the Pro positioned as a more costly option compared to previous console cycles, including economic factors and a lack of direct competition in its market segment explored by Harding-Rolls.

The PS5 Pro contrasts with Microsoft's upcoming $600 Series X model in pricing strategy. Piscatella extrapolated on this indicative of the wider industry's trajectory, reflecting broader consumer trends in technology.

SJN Insights' Naji perceived the absent mention of pricing in Sony's presentation as indicative of awareness around its contentiousness, suggesting it might impact consumer decisions alongside upcoming competitive releases like the anticipated Switch 2.

"The console sphere is diversifying... Choices and models today diverge greatly from a once uniform experience."

Mat Piscatella, Circana

Without a standout technological edge akin to the PS4 Pro's support for emerging 4K standards, there's skepticism whether marginal enhancements justify the Pro's steep pricing hike, especially amidst broader economic concerns.

Naji pointed out historical parallels to the high-cost PS3 launch, questioning whether the Pro provides a compelling enough upgrade.

While PS5 Pro is seen as having long-term potential, particularly concerning anticipated game releases like Grand Theft Auto 6, analysts ponder the model's role in reinforcing rather than reshaping Sony's overall gaming enterprise.

Naji summarizes that its success hinges on financial climates, technological advancements presented, and consumer preferences towards disc-enabled consoles versus digital models, forecasting how future gaming may adapt to its potential capabilities.