VG Insights: Fallout TV show might bring Bethesda $80 million in additional game-related revenue
Sales of Fallout games have skyrocketed since the launch of the TV series on Amazon. VG Insights used data from its platform to estimate how much revenue the popularity of the show’s first season would generate for Bethesda.
Fallout 4 (left), Amazon’s Fallout TV show (right)
As VG Insights explained in a new blog post, it estimated the uplift in Fallout game metrics at the time of the TV series’ launch (April 10) and forecasted the trend through September, “when we estimate most of the upside has been realized.”
Analysts took into account only game-related revenue for Fallout 4 and Fallout 76 across consoles and PC. Below are some estimates:
- Fallout 4 — 2 million copies sold from April to September, $22 million in estimated revenue;
- Fallout 76 — 1-1.5 million copies sold, $16 million in estimated revenue;
- Fallout 76 (in-game purchases) — $12 million.
It is unclear how much money Amazon paid to acquire the TV adaptation rights for Fallout, but VG Insights noted that “typical game and physical goods IP license fees tend to be c. 10-20% of the revenue generated.” Given the TV show’s $150 million budget, the 20% licensing fee could be around $30 million.
This brings the total estimated revenues for Bethesda, from April to September 2024, to around $80 million.
Image: VG Insights
VG Insights didn’t provide any calculations for other games in the series, including Fallout 3 and New Vegas. In addition, Bethesda’s portfolio also includes free-to-play title Fallout Shelter, with analysts saying that “we lack the data behind it, so we’re likely underestimating the total impact by c. $5-10M.”
According to AppMagic, the mobile version of Fallout Shelter also saw a significant increase in its in-app revenue after the launch of Amazon’s TV show. The game generated $3.61 million in April, up 484% from $618.5k in March.
There is no doubt that Bethesda and its parent company Microsoft will try to further capitalize on this success. So it will be interesting to see what plans they have for the franchise, especially given that the TV show has already been renewed for Season 2.
