The game Concord necessitates a particular number of players to maintain viability, though the exact figure depends on various factors specific to the game's design and community engagement.
Sony's decision to halt sales of its new live service shooter, Concord, might have been expected by some industry observers. Shortly after its release, the game reportedly sold around 25,000 copies: 10,000 on Steam and 15,000 on PlayStation. Player engagement statistics from SteamDB show that Concord reached a peak of 697 simultaneous players on August 24, just one day post-launch, with numbers dropping quickly thereafter. During a recent recording of the GI Microcast, only 39 players were logged in.
Cancelling an online game is always a significant choice for a company, especially for Sony, which heavily invests in live-service models. Concord's discontinuation likely stems from its unimpressive sales and low active user count. Maintaining multiplayer games is costly, and servicing a limited player base isn't sustainable, particularly in fluctuating economic climates.
The number of players needed to justify keeping an online game alive varies greatly, depending on multiple factors such as the developer's situation and their strategic goals. For insights into these decisions, industry experts were consulted prior to a live Q&A podcast planned for Devcom 2024. Piers Harding-Rolls from Ampere Analysis mentions that what constitutes a viable player base varies for each game, depending on elements like R&D investment, staffing costs, and marketing expenses.
Harding-Rolls states, "Every game and company has different criteria, so a break-even point varies. Beyond profitability, ensuring a sufficient player base is crucial for game enjoyment worldwide. A scarcity of players leads to lengthy wait times and dissatisfaction, prompting users to seek alternatives."
The landscape of online games has seen many titles face shutdowns recently. Synched, a shooter from Tencent, was discontinued only a year after debut, averaging around 10,000 active users daily, with concurrent numbers between 500 and 1,000. February 2023 saw eight games, including Apex Legends Mobile and Rumbleverse, announce closures within a week. Knockout City, another title that went offline after two years, had pivoted to a free-to-play model to attract players post-Electronic Arts publishing.
Guha Bala from Velan Studios notes the complexity of deciding a game's fate, mentioning that for skill-based PvP games, peak CCU should be around 10,000 in each region. Bala explains that regional population densities and technological limitations, like lag due to distance, affect gameplay quality and matchmaking time. In cases of smaller player bases, strategies like using rollback code can maintain experience quality with significantly lower CCUs.
Non-skill-based games require fewer players, and PvE games can operate with 1,000 to 3,000 CCUs per region by using bots for a fuller experience. Bala asserts that business models significantly influence a game's longevity. For free-to-play titles, a small percentage of the user base must spend to cover costs, with a viable CCU possibly needing to exceed 50,000. This makes breaking into the market challenging for new games.
Concord followed a different model, opting for a mid-range price akin to Helldivers 2, without adding microtransactions. Revenue solely relied on sales figures, which appear insufficient at the current trajectory. Higher game prices often correspond with larger development teams, amplifying expenses. Bala estimates a 50-person team could cost around $500,000 monthly, equating to a need for selling 25,000 copies of a $20 game each month. With Concord priced at $40 and about 150 developers from Firewalk Studios, the overhead is substantial.
Bala believes a return to premium models could foster PVP innovation, suggesting upfront payment models might counterbalance the market's current focus on monetization. The future of Concord remains uncertain, with game director Ryan Ellis hinting at potential new directions for the game. Realistically, launching new live service games in a market dominated by popular titles like Fortnite and GTA Online continues to be a daunting challenge.
