New data suggests that games such as Call of Duty and EA Sports FC are most vulnerable to losing players during the release of GTA 6
Recent insights reveal that the impending release of Grand Theft Auto 6 poses a significant threat to player retention in competitive shooter and sports game genres.
The gaming consultancy firm Open World has performed a risk assessment to determine which player demographics might be most likely to abandon their current games for GTA 6 upon its release, and offers guidance to developers on preparation strategies.
According to survey findings, 69% of gamers using PCs and consoles plan to engage with this highly awaited game. In the U.S., estimates by Sensor Tower show that 6.08 million digital pre-orders had been placed by October 13, generating $594 million in sales.
Open World's analysis focuses on historical overlap, assessing the proportion of players from existing games who have previously experienced a GTA game, and launch intent, measuring how many are planning to play GTA 6 at its release.
Games like Call of Duty, Battlefield, Apex Legends, Fortnite, EA Sports FC, and NBA 2K are anticipated to see player numbers drop during GTA 6's launch phase.
Counter-Strike 2 stands out as an exception since it’s not available on consoles. Although its players often also enjoy GTA titles, their intention to switch to GTA for its launch is lower.
The study indicates that gamers favoring driving, movement-centric, "high-stakes sessions," and open-world titles are particularly inclined to transition to GTA 6 during its debut.
The findings underscore that even players deeply committed to franchises such as Call of Duty or Fortnite might not remain loyal, with the report emphasizing that dedication alone "will not protect a game from GTA 6."
Open World advises against releasing major content updates or initiating expensive marketing efforts during the GTA 6 launch. "There should be sufficient market activity to support current players while reserving aggressive re-engagement strategies for when player attention stabilizes."
The organization also recommends maintaining a presence during the launch, irrespective of shifts in player focus. "A game facing less competition from GTA 6 can maintain its voice in the market, especially as more impacted contenders withdraw. If player tendencies remain consistent, continuing usual practices is sensible."
"Monitor the uptake of GTA 6, the loss and recovery of player time, and adapt re-engagement strategies based on actual player behavior, rather than sticking to a fixed schedule."
