According to Newzoo, the console revenue for 2026 would remain unchanged from the previous year if Grand Theft Auto 6 were not released

Screenshot from Grand Theft Auto 6. Jason Duval and Lucia Caminos stand together in front of palm trees and a modern cityscape. Lucia wears a cropped rust-colored jacket and glasses, with her hair in braids. Jason, wearing sunglasses and a tropical-print shirt, stands slightly behind and to her right.

Image credit: Rockstar Games

The gaming industry expects that, without Grand Theft Auto 6 (GTA 6) launching this year, console earnings would remain stable through 2025. Emmanuel Rosier, the director of market intelligence at Newzoo, highlighted at Gamescom 2026 that Rockstar's upcoming title is a crucial factor in the forecasted growth in 2026. He mentioned that the Nintendo Switch 2 also plays a part in the present console market performance.

Rosier explained, "The current and future success of consoles is driven by Switch 2 and, significantly, GTA 6's release this year, which boosts the market." He emphasized that without GTA 6's debut, 2026 could have seen a decline in console sales annually, noting GTA's role in sustaining positive growth.

According to Newzoo's Global Games Market Report, console sales are projected to rise by 5.1% in 2026, reaching $46.9 billion. GTA 6 alone is expected to enhance overall game spending by 17.5%, the highest growth projected for any business model.

Rosier pointed out that GTA 6's release could overshadow other games, influencing studios to reschedule their launches. He also suggested that the "Grand Theft Auto bump" could extend beyond 2026 because of the title's enduring appeal. As for the future of GTA Online, he acknowledged the uncertainty regarding its evolution in upcoming months, noting that Take-Two has not provided details about any transition or alignment between the existing and new GTA offerings.

Commenting on the anticipation for GTA 6 and its pricing strategy, Rosier stated that one company's pricing decisions often set trends for others, noting the "low price elasticity" of such a high-demand title. He observed, "Everyone has been waiting a long time for this." He added that typically, higher prices in popular games encourage broader market price adjustments, such as indie games now costing $30 instead of $20.

Moreover, Newzoo's report indicates mobile platforms dominate the global gaming scene, expected to generate 57% of all revenue this year, totaling $121.1 billion, which reflects a 6.8% increase from the previous year. This growth is fueled by increased player spending and direct-to-consumer sales channels.

Previously, Newzoo estimated that pre-orders for GTA 6 brought in $260 million during the initial week of availability.