An analyst has commented that with Call of Duty discontinuing support for older generation consoles, it is now targeting the smallest player base since 2017

Image credit: Activision

The release of Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4 will not be supported on Xbox One and PlayStation 4, which analysts at S&P say will decrease its potential market impact by 4.3%. The release on the upcoming Switch 2, marking the franchise's return to a Nintendo console for the first time since 2013, is not expected to compensate for the decline in users from older consoles.

According to S&P analyst Neil Barbour, using data from within the firm, the new Call of Duty will target a worldwide installed base of 147.5 million consoles, representing a 5.6% decline from last year's Black Ops 7 audience. Black Ops 7 itself did not meet performance expectations. The increase in all console prices, led by rising manufacturing costs, limits the availability of new consoles. Sony raised PS5 prices globally in March, followed by two price hikes for Xbox consoles in 2025.

The firm's data suggests a reduction of almost 3m in the potential console install base. | Image credit: S&P Global

The estimates rely on a projected 36 million active users for PS4 and Xbox One by the end of 2026, while the Switch 2 is expected to have 33.9 million users by the same time. Barbour noted that Microsoft's commitments to regulators, as part of its acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc., influenced the decision to include the Switch 2.

In communications with clients, Barbour noted that despite the transition from older consoles providing more room for leveraging PS5 and Xbox Series S and X capabilities, integrating the Switch 2 adds complexity due to its comparatively lower power. The modern architecture of Switch 2 might make development simpler, but hardware limitations will still need to be considered.

The Call of Duty series stands out for its lengthy presence across multiple console generations, supporting the PS4 for five years post the release of its successor, unlike the PS3 which was dropped after two. Changes are being made to the franchise's release strategy due to the underperformance of Black Ops 7, and recent Call of Duty games are no longer part of Microsoft's Game Pass, following broad strategic shifts under Xbox's new CEO, Asha Sharma.