According to an analyst, the decision to remove Call of Duty from older generation consoles indicates it is now targeting its smallest player base since 2017

Image credit: Activision

Activision has made the strategic choice to discontinue support for Xbox One and PlayStation 4 in the upcoming Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 4. This move is predicted to shrink its reachable audience by 5.6%, according to S&P's latest analysis. The franchise's debut on Switch 2, marking its return to a Nintendo console after a decade, is not expected to compensate for the decline in players using older systems.

Analyst Neil Barbour from S&P highlighted that due to this shift, the game will target an installed base of 147.5 million consoles worldwide, a noticeable decrease from the previous year's Black Ops 7 audience, which reportedly did not meet performance expectations.

The price hike in gaming consoles, driven by increased component costs, might further curtail the sales of new hardware. Sony raised the PS5 price internationally in March, and Xbox underwent two price increases in 2025.

The firm's data suggests a reduction of almost 3 million in the potential console install base. | Image credit: S&P Global

S&P's forecast suggests there will still be about 36 million PS4 and Xbox One users by the end of 2026. However, the Switch 2 is expected to have an installed base of 33.9 million. Barbour remarked that Microsoft's assurance to regulators of launching on Switch aided in their acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc.

Despite moving on from older consoles allowing better utilization of new-gen capabilities like those in PS5 and Xbox Series, incorporating Switch 2 adds complexity. Barbour noted that although Switch 2's advanced architecture aids scaling, developers must account for its lower overall performance compared to its contemporaries.

The Call of Duty series has spanned various console generations, with PS4 support extending five years after its successor's release, unlike PS3 which was dropped sooner. Following the tepid reception of Black Ops 7, Activision has announced adjustments in its release schedule. Recently, Call of Duty titles were pulled from Game Pass as part of Xbox CEO Asha Sharma's reforms.