Ampere Analysis projects that over 13 million consumers are anticipated to buy the Switch 2 in 2025

A report from Ampere Analysis indicates that the Nintendo Switch 2 is anticipated to attract over 13 million buyers in 2025. Forecasts suggest the console will sell 32.2 million units in 2024, reaching 51.2 million by 2027, and hitting 104.3 million sales by 2030.

While the early sales of Switch 2 are projected to be strong due to existing demand from current Switch users, the sales trajectory is expected to slow by the end of the decade. Factors such as US tariffs and the absence of a pandemic-related boost in gaming purchases, unlike the original Switch, contribute to this outlook.

Ampere Analysis foresees Nintendo's portion of the console hardware market growing nearly 50% by 2027. Competing devices like the Steam Deck and PlayStation Portal are viewed as unlikely to significantly impact Switch 2's appeal, as they cater to niche markets and often come with higher price tags.

The firm predicts that Switch 2 will outsell all PC gaming handheld devices combined in its first year. An illustrative statistic showed that a majority of Steam Deck users also use a Nintendo Switch, whereas only a small fraction of Switch users consider the Steam Deck their main console.

Regarding software, the report forecasts that new game titles for Switch 2 could create a market valued at $7 billion to $8 billion in the following two years, expanding to $10 billion by 2028. Despite having a modest selection of launch-day titles like its predecessor, enhancements and exclusive editions are expected to incentivize Switch owners to upgrade.

The competitive edge is further highlighted by third-party collaborations, enabling Switch 2 to better compete with Sony’s and Microsoft’s consoles through high-profile game ports such as Cyberpunk 2077 and Final Fantasy 7 Remake. Exclusive partnerships, like the one with FromSoftware on The Duskbloods, aim to increase engagement from casual users.

Ampere Analysis also pointed out a potential growth area for Nintendo in-game monetization. In 2024, Nintendo's share of the console market's in-game and DLC revenue was just 4%, compared to Microsoft's 31% and Sony's 65%. If Nintendo focuses more on this monetization aspect, its share could increase to 10% by 2027.