Ampere Analysis projects that more than 13 million players are likely to buy the Switch 2 in 2025

An anticipated 13 million players are projected to acquire a Nintendo Switch 2 in 2025, as revealed by a report from Ampere Analysis.

The report forecasts the console to achieve sales of 32.2 million units in the following year, 51.2 million by 2027, and reach 104.3 million by the decade's conclusion.

Initial sales of the Switch 2 are expected to be high due to "pent up demand from existing Switch users," but sales are predicted to decelerate by 2030. This trend is attributed to uncertainties from US tariffs and the absence of a pandemic-driven increase in sales, unlike the original Switch's experience.

Analyzing the wider console industry, Ampere Analysis foresees a nearly 50% increase in Nintendo's hardware market share by 2027.

Regarding competition from other gaming handhelds like the Steam Deck and PlayStation Portal, the report suggests these devices do not pose "a significant threat to Switch 2 adoption" due to their niche sales and higher pricing compared to Nintendo's new console.

Ampere Analysis asserts that the Switch 2's debut year sales will exceed the cumulative sales of the entire PC gaming handheld sector.

The analysis cites that "56% of Steam Deck owners also use a Nintendo Switch," whereas merely "1.3% of Switch owners regard the Steam Deck as their primary gaming console."

Regarding software for the Switch 2, Ampere Analysis anticipates that new games will generate a market valued between $7 billion and $8 billion over the next couple of years, expanding to $10 billion by 2028.

Similar to its predecessor, the Switch 2 did not debut with an extensive launch-day game lineup. However, Switch 2 'Edition' games and updates for previous titles are expected to drive spending from existing Switch owners towards the new console.

The report also points out the robust presence of third-party content on the Switch 2, which will position Nintendo in more direct competition with Sony and Xbox, featuring major title ports such as Cyberpunk 2077 and Final Fantasy 7 Remake.

Nintendo's collaboration with FromSoftware to develop The Duskbloods as an exclusive for the Switch 2 aims to engage part-time Switch users more deeply, potentially drawing their interest away from PlayStation and Xbox.

Ampere Analysis highlights an "untapped opportunity" for Nintendo in the realm of in-game monetization on its platforms. In 2024, Nintendo held a 4% share in the console market for in-game and downloadable content monetization, in contrast to Microsoft's 31% and Sony's 65% shares.

Looking ahead to 2027, the report suggests that Nintendo's share could potentially increase to 10% if the company focuses on enhancing its efforts in this business area.