The postponement of Assassin's Creed Shadows poses a significant risk for Ubisoft | Analysis
There is a perspective that suggests Star Wars Outlaws had the potential to be a Christmas blockbuster. Announced during the atypical E3 of 2023, the game received tremendous attention and quickly became a top priority for media outlets, exciting Star Wars fans anticipating a major open-world addition to the franchise.
However, it struggled to achieve the anticipated success. While much has been written about the failure of Sony's Concord, it was Star Wars Outlaws’ surprising underperformance that caught attention. With none of the inherent risks associated with new IPs or developers unfamiliar to PlayStation enthusiasts, its lackluster sales were unexpected, particularly when compared to the prospect of high stakes gambles like Concord.
Ubisoft, already facing challenging times with its financials and investor concerns, including potential job cuts, did not expect such an outcome. Skepticism about the financial viability of Star Wars Outlaws emerged during June's Summer Games Fest. A full year after its initial reveal, interest seemed to wane as other games climbed the social media charts and wish lists. With less than three months before its release, public excitement appeared muted.
The reasons for this downtrend are up for debate, from release timing and business models to platforms and recent Star Wars narrative inconsistencies. However, if it had launched in late October or early November, it might have resonated better. Positioned as the ‘holiday Star Wars experience,’ it could have benefited from holiday shopping trends, especially with a strategic Black Friday offer.
Shadows now arrives in a competitive window, arguably more so than the November slot it was initially scheduled for
Ubisoft intended for Assassin's Creed Shadows to be their year-end flagship, which made sense since they fully own the franchise. The decision aimed to avoid revenue sharing with Disney. However, due to the necessity to revise their marketing and release strategies, this plan changed, causing Assassin's to shift to an early 2024 window.
This holiday, Ubisoft will focus heavily on promoting Star Wars Outlaws alongside Just Dance. In contrast to past publishing downturns, today’s environment allows for recovery after a disappointing start. Marketing efforts initially earmarked for Assassin's can now be redirected to give Outlaws a second chance. Major titles like Call of Duty and Dragon Age are slated for release only, offering room for Outlaws to thrive in Q4.
With generally positive critical reception and improvements in response to feedback by the team at Massive, Star Wars Outlaws might find success with compelling Black Friday deals as well.
Meanwhile, a February release for Assassin's Creed presents a unique challenge, though Ubisoft has found success with early-year launches in the past, similar to big hits like Hogwarts Legacy and Elden Ring.
Concerns arise due to the upcoming release of Capcom's Monster Hunter Wilds, set two weeks after Assassin's, which remains highly anticipated, especially following its strong showing at Gamescom. Furthermore, its appeal in Japan—a demographic Ubisoft aims to captivate—is notable as Shadows are specifically located there.
Additions to this competitive field include Kingdom Come Deliverance 2 and Microsoft's Avowed coming in February. Further complicating matters, Sony's Ghost of Tsushima sequel is slated for release in 2025.
This competitive landscape poses significant challenges, and Ubisoft must consider the hurdles faced by Sony when launching Horizon Forbidden West shortly before Elden Ring.
Ubisoft's stated purpose for these adjustments includes changes to its game release strategy. The company plans to focus on launching its titles on Steam from day one, moving away from the less successful Epic Games Store strategy. Additionally, it plans to phase out the Season Pass business model in favor of more favorable user engagement tactics.
It's uncertain whether these strategic shifts will garner the desired community approval. However, if delaying Assassin's Creed leads to robust performance for Star Wars Outlaws during the holidays and still yields strong results for Assassin's after the February shift, Ubisoft’s gamble may indeed be justified.
Nonetheless, it’s a strategy that undeniably involves substantial risk.
