IDFA policy may lead to iOS in-app advertising market losing nearly 20% of value

Analysts unveiled a new forecast on the possible aftermath of Apple’s changes in its IDFA privacy rules. This year, the in-app ad market on iOS may see a 17% drop in the value.

The projection has been made in the recent App Ecosystems Forecast: 2020-25 by analyst firm Omdia.

The company’s principal analyst Guillermo Escofet estimates that the iOS in-app advertising market will lose 17% in 2021. The impending changes in Apple’s IDFA policy are the main reason behind this number.

“Over a third of this shortfall will be revenue lost to other forms of advertising or held back; nearly two-thirds will be revenue redistributed to Android in-app ads, as iOS ads lose almost 60 percent of their premium over their Android counterparts,” Escofet explains in his LinkedIn post.

According to Omdia’s forecast, iOS users spent 4.7 times more on apps than Android users last year. It means that companies will have to find new marketing ploys to compensate for the lack of IDFA data. Escofet also says that the loss of targetability of iOS ads “should lead to higher demand and higher prices for Android ads.”

Although analysts say that the market value will drop this year, they expect the iOS in-app ads to recover much of their originally projected premium by 2024.

Last June, Apple announced that users will be able to turn off IDFA for every single app, meaning it would be more difficult for marketers to target ads and operate advertising budgets. The company said that the changes are coming “early spring 2021.”